Triathlon Race Predictor
Triathlon race predictor.
Physics-based bike model with race-specific elevation for Sprint, Olympic, 70.3 and Ironman. Predicts every split + total finish, W/kg, carbs and fluid.
Predicted finish
4:47:10
W/kg at race power: 2.66
Swim
33:06
T1
2:00
Bike
2:21:29
T2
1:30
Run
1:49:05
Carbs needed
335g
Fluid target
3.8L
Frequently asked
How accurate is this triathlon predictor?
Physics-based bike modeling + fatigue adjustments. Typically within 3-5% when inputs are honest. Hilly races (Lake Placid, Wisconsin, St. George) improve in accuracy when you enter actual bike elevation.
What's a good W/kg for an Ironman?
Age-groupers race 2.5-3.1 W/kg. Sub-10 hr typically 2.8+. Elite pros 3.5+. For 70.3 aim 2.8-3.3.
How much carbs per hour during the race?
60-90 g/hr on the bike, 30-60 g/hr on the run. Total scales with race duration. Always rehearse fueling at race intensity.
Does elevation gain really slow my bike split?
Yes — ~2-3 min/hr added per 1000 ft of climbing at steady watts. Lake Placid's 6,625 ft costs 15-20 minutes vs. a flat course at the same W/kg.