VDOT from a 5K
From a single 5K time, predict your 10K, half marathon, and full marathon — plus every training pace.
Why the 5K is the best input
The 5K is short enough to run honestly without a long taper, and short enough to repeat every 4-6 weeks during a build. Jack Daniels' VDOT model treats it as one of the most reliable inputs for predicting longer races: VO2max is fully expressed, fatigue is minimal, and pacing errors are small. Plug a recent 5K into the VDOT calculator and you get an exact training-pace prescription for the next block.
5K → VDOT → race-time predictions
| 5K time | VDOT | 10K | Half marathon | Marathon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | 60 | 33:12 | 1:13:49 | 2:33:46 |
| 18:00 | 54 | 37:24 | 1:23:06 | 2:53:20 |
| 20:00 | 49 | 41:35 | 1:32:26 | 3:13:00 |
| 22:00 | 45 | 45:47 | 1:41:46 | 3:32:43 |
| 24:00 | 41 | 49:58 | 1:51:07 | 3:52:30 |
| 26:00 | 38 | 54:09 | 2:00:28 | 4:12:21 |
| 28:00 | 35 | 58:20 | 2:09:50 | 4:32:16 |
| 30:00 | 33 | 1:02:31 | 2:19:13 | 4:52:14 |
Predictions assume distance-specific training. Without long runs and tempo work, marathon times will fall short of these targets.
Get your exact VDOT in 10 seconds
Enter your 5K time and unlock training paces, lap splits, heat/altitude adjustments, and quality workout templates.
Open the VDOT calculatorFAQ
Can I really predict a marathon from a 5K?
Yes — within roughly 2-4% when your aerobic base is built. The Daniels-Gilbert VDOT model derives marathon predictions from any race distance, including 5K. Accuracy improves once you've done 8+ weeks of long runs above 90 minutes.
How fast should my marathon be if I run a 20:00 5K?
A 20:00 5K maps to a VDOT of ~50, which predicts a marathon of roughly 3:11. The prediction assumes appropriate marathon-specific training — without long runs and tempo work, expect to finish 5-10% slower.
What if I'm new to long distances?
VDOT predicts what's possible at your current aerobic ceiling. Without endurance training, you may finish 10-20% slower than predicted. Use the prediction as a target after a proper 16-week marathon build.
How recent does the 5K need to be?
Within about six weeks. Beyond that, fitness has usually moved enough to make the derived paces wrong in one direction or the other.
Does a parkrun count?
Yes, if you raced it. A hard tempo effort on a course with three hairpins and a hill will underestimate your VDOT.
How much should my VDOT rise per block?
One to three points per 8-12 week block for a trained runner. Beginners often move faster than that, veterans slower.
Breno MeloHead Coach · USA Triathlon, Road Runners Club of America, TrainingPeaksEmail me my 5K-to-VDOT card
Your VDOT from the 5K, all five training paces, and the equivalent times you should be able to run.
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Daniels–Gilbert VDOT from a single 5K performance
VDOT solved from the 5K time, then all training paces read back off that curve.
- The 5K was raced, not time-trialled at sub-maximal effort, on an accurate course.
- A 5K under-represents endurance, so longer-race predictions from it skew optimistic.
- Single-race input carries all of that day's conditions into every derived pace.
Trained distance runners.
Formula, constants and cited sources last verified on . Spotted something wrong? Email breno@brenoamelo.com and it gets corrected and dated.
How a 5K becomes a VDOT
The 5K is close to 95% of VO2max for most trained runners, which makes it an unusually clean input to the Daniels-Gilbert model.
Because the duration curve corrects for how long you held the effort, the resulting VDOT is directly comparable to one from a marathon.
References
Every physiological claim on this page traces to one of the primary sources below — the original paper, textbook or governing-body standard, not a secondary write-up.
- 01Daniels J, Gilbert J (1979). Oxygen Power: Performance Tables for Distance Runners. Self-published, Tempe, AZ — the original VDOT tables and the %VO2max / VO2-velocity regressions still used today. OCLC 8221265
- 02Daniels J (2021). Daniels' Running Formula, 4th edition. Human Kinetics, Champaign, IL. ISBN 978-1-4925-7443-2
Using this page in your own work?
Copy a formatted reference below. If you are quoting a number from this page, please link back to it so readers can check the source and the date it was last reviewed.
Breno Melo, "VDOT From 5K Calculator — Breno Melo Endurance Coaching", Breno Melo Endurance Coaching (last reviewed 20 June 2026). https://www.brenoamelo.com/calculators/vdot/from-5k
Jack Daniels VDOT: The Complete Guide
What VDOT measures and how to turn it into Easy, Threshold, Interval and Repetition paces.
Lactate Threshold vs VO2max
The two ceilings that decide your race pace, and which one to train now.
The VDOT Training Guide
Every VDOT from 30 to 85 turned into Easy, Marathon, Threshold, Interval and Repetition paces.
Zone 2: Why Slow Training Builds Fast Athletes
Easy pace is the engine room of every PR — here is how to use it.
One 5K, one VDOT. Apex turns it into the next 12 weeks.
A 5K time is the cheapest fitness test there is. Apex reads the score, sets your paces, and builds the block that moves it — then re-tests and re-plans as it climbs.
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